Climate Change Made Simple: II – The Science

Carbon and oxygen are two of our planet’s most common elements.  Carbon combines easily with other elements, and oxygen is a gas that is essential to all forms of life.  The combination of these two elements, CO2, is the most interesting gas found in our earth’s atmosphere.  CO2 functions in our planet’s plant and animal system as both a fuel and a byproduct; it is a fuel for plant growth and a byproduct of animal respiration and many forms of combustion.  As a result, CO2 is an essential factor in all forms of life within our planet.  

Down through the ages, the amount of CO2 in the Earth’s atmosphere has varied widely.  Oxygen and nitrogen gases, with 99 percent of the total, dominate the Earth’s atmosphere.  CO2 and other rare gases portions of the atmosphere are measured in parts per million, ppm.  The CO2 portion in the atmosphere is currently measured at 420 ppm.  At the depths of the Little Ice Age CO2 measured 220 ppm, which is just modestly above the 150 ppm that scientists believe below which plant life becomes threatened.  (see chart below).

A diagram of different gases

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                            Total Atmospheric Gases                                                         Trace Gases 

Scientists have attributed greenhouse gases as being a major factor in affecting a planet’s temperatures.   Greenhouse gases impede the escape of thermal radiation to space.   They moderate the Earth’s temperature enough o sustain life here.  Without them, like on the moon, we would freeze at night when the sun doesn’t shine and burn up during the times the planet’s surface faces the sun.

In our earth’s atmosphere, 90% of the greenhouse gases are comprised of water vapor.  The remaining 10% is composed of CO2, methane, nitrous oxide, fluorinated gases, and ozone. With just 6 percent of the total greenhouse gases and only 0.04 of one percent of the earth’s total atmosphere, even a rapid increase in the CO2 concentration should cause only insignificant leverage on temperature changes and as substantiated by the previous  graphs of our earth’s current warming cycles. (see chart below). 

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Earth’s Greenhouse Gases

Furthermore, scientists have discovered and agree that each that the warming effect of each module of CO2 decreases significantly as its concentration increases, thus dismissing any straight-line effect of increased amounts of CO2 feeding into the Earth’s greenhouse gases.  Failure of temperature forecast models to acknowledge this important scientific fact have allowed the proliferation of overblown temperature forecasts. 

Since the beginnings of the Industrial Revolution and the use of fossil fuels beginning around 1750, temperatures and CO2 both increased and are continuing to increase today – a direct correlation or coincidence?  

The historical definitive temperature and Co2 atmospheric levels answer that question conclusively.  Over the past 8,000 years, as shown in the below chart, no direct correlation can be drawn from the two variables.   

A graph showing the price of a coal price

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      8,000 Years of Temepratures and CO2 Fluctuations

During the past 300 years of warming during the Indutrial Revolution, temperature variatrions up and down occurred despite the steadily rising CO2 levels.  Also notice that the warming period began about 100 years before fossil fuels began to be used.         

A graph showing the temperature of the earth

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            300 Years of Warming and CO2 Increasing Levels 

In conclusion, the Earth has been in a 140-million-year trend of dangerously decreasing levels of CO2 while, due to the Industrial Revolution and the technology and increased life spans, the Earth’s population has expanded from under one billion to over eight billion.  World population is forecasted to peak at 10.4 billion in 2086.  The world’s population would be greatly endangered if proposed CO2 reductions were allowed, and our agricultural outputs starved of necessary CO2.

A graph showing the impact of climate change

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140 Million Years of Dangerous Reductions in CO2

The information presented herein is in the public domain and can be assessed by anyone seeking to find the truth about the current Warming Period the Earth is experiencing and the possible effects of atmospheric CO2 may have on the Earth’s temperature.  Various scientists may argue minute details of how many angels can dance on the point of a needle, but the basic facts are unchallengeable.  These are:

  • The temperature levels experienced on Earth today, even with the most drastic projections, do not transport modern civilization into existential levels that are beyond the warming levels experienced by the three previous civilizations that lived in our 5,000-year modern age of mankind.
  • Fossil fuel use that results in CO2 emissions into the atmosphere have no or just minor effect on the Earth’s temperatures.
  • Therefore, arguments presented by those advocating major changes to our current electrical energy and transportation means of travel are pursuing other objectives.

This latter item will be discussed in future jenkins-speaks posts.