Within the next thirty days, or less, is the time for President Donald Trump to end his and Israel’s campaign against Iran, make a deal to open the Strait of Hormuz, have a short victory dance, and then get back to taking care of business at home. Whatever deal evolves, Iran will be in economic and political chaos for at least the next decade. It will no longer be a significant danger to its neighbors. Iranian’s highly processed uranium is buried deep in their destroyed mountain resting places, and U.S. and Israel should promise to monitor Iran’s nuclear activities closely and again handle any activity that arises.
This is not an unconditional surrender, but history shows that regime changes created by outside conflict, without an invasion and occupation, are highly unlikely. Instead, Trump should modify a quote from Eddie Murphy in the 1990 movie, “Trading Places”, when he said, “The best way to hurt rich people is to turn them into poor people”. Trump and Israel have already turned Iran into a poor country; they should take the victory and end the conflict.
This past Monday, April 20, 2026, after the latest Iranian peace talks broke down, the most prominent headline on the front page of the Wall Street Journal boldly read, “Big Oil Explores Farther Afield to Dodge Middle East Turmoil”. According to this article, major oil companies are awash with cash are looking to invest in “new oil-and-gas prospects far away from the perils of war in the Middle East”. The named projects included an Exxon $24 billion investment in Nigeria, an expanded Chevron footprint in Venezuela, BP in Namibia, and TotalEnergies in Turkey.
Every effort should be planned immediately to significantly lessen the world’s reliance on oil flowing through the Strait of Horuz. Arab nations should build pipelines for any oil that can bypass the Strait. Alaskan other U.S. oil production was limited for four years by the Biden Administration but made available for development when Trump took office.
The WSJ report suggests that there are sufficient untapped oil reserves around the planet to offset oil through the Staits that might be subject to future Iranian blackmail. Venezuela allegedly has the world’ largest untapped oil reserves. Drilling prospects in Africa, Egypt, and South America are also being evaluated. Great Britan and Norway could increase the output from their North Sea oil fields.
If Russian could be brought back into the good graces of the free world with a Ukrainian withdrawal, or a reasonable settlement, Russia could add to the volume of oil not subject to Iranian mischief.
President Trump’s opponents and the mainstream press will criticize him whatever deal he makes to end the war, so he has no upside politically for obtaining the perfect agreement with Iran when Iran’s leaders cannot agree who is in charge there. America’s European allies have already sat the war out. High oil prices and a longer war will only make keeping his political advantage for the second half of his Administration more difficult.
The viable oil supply options of the 1970s that ran principally through the Middle East no longer apply. The U.S. now is the world’s dominant oil producer, so world oil shortages only affect the price of fuel, not its critical availability to keep our economy running.
America and Israel devastated Iran and its proxies. Europe and the Middles East should take on their responsibilities and gladly accept Trump and Netanyahu’s gift to them of an Iran without fangs and an open Strait of Hormuz. Iran is now largely irrelevant!
For America, twenty-five years of endless wars are over!
TW3
April 23, 2026
John Whitmore Jenkins
