Twenty-five years ago, when my son was seeking his first job after college, he interviewed the FBI. I was afraid he would be accepted and with his command of Spanish, would be assigned against the proverbial ‘war on drugs’. To me this was a war that would never be won by law enforcement. The cost to the cartels to manufacture any illegal drug shipments seized is minimal compared to the much higher street value of the unseized drugs that are sold to the American public.
Fortunately, my son embarked on a successful, and safer, career which used his Spanish language talent to expand international business in Latin America and Spain.
This personal story is analogous to the unravelling of the old globalization with the U.S. military protecting supply chains to the world and more costly fragmented, regional trading arrangements outside of core American interests. This trend will be accelerated as nations lose populations to low birth rates and a much higher elderly percentage of their population who will slow economic growth and increase welfare costs.
Demographically, the most advantageous location for establishing highest twenty-first century economic growth is centered on both sides of the Texas/Mexican border. The U.S. has the largest consumer market and is the planet’s technological leader. Mexico and countries on both sides of the Panama Canal contain populations that would benefit from rapid industrialization. Labor costs in China exceeded those in Mexico in 2018/19.
These same areas north and south of the Panama Canal also happen to be the center of the Latin American drug operations. Two-thirds of the Western hemisphere’s supply of cocaine is grown in Columbia with Peru and Bolivia producing much of the balance. Most of the manufacturing and distribution networks operate in Mexico and Central America north of the Canal to supply drug users in the U.S. and Western Europe.
In 2023 Mexico was the largest trading partner of the U.S. with Canada a close second. Together that year, they almost tripled China’s trade with our country. Most of our trade with Mexico flows through Texas/Mexican border. Over the next half century as trade slows, fragments, or declines in the rest of the world, the Texas/Mexico connection has the potential to become the world’s greatest industrial growth region on the planet.
The North American Treaty Agreement (NAFTA) of 1992 and its successor agreement, the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) of 2020, facilitated the flow of goods and services between the three countries, however, illegal immigration and drug flow, and the Border Wall have made the Texas/Mexican border a nightmare for legitimate inter-country traffic, especially personnel and vehicles, and political cooperation.
The illegal drugs and immigration greatly expanded the wealth of the criminal Mexican drug cartels, strengthening their sway over Mexico’s political system. For the U.S. and Mexico to obtain their full potential to enhance the future prosperity of their citizens, the economic opportunities between the two countries must become more balanced to diminish the northern flow of Mexican citizens seeking more opportunities in the U.S. and participation in illegal cartel operations in both countries.
As much as $10-20 Trillion of new investment is presumably seeking areas for it to be invested in the U.S., but our country may not have enough workers for optimum returns to be achieved. If part of that commitment were diverted successfully into Mexico, American Capitalism would reduce the clout of the Mexican cartels. Then if America were to creatively diminish illegal drug demand in the country, voila, the Border Wall could come down!
If we could almost eliminate cigarette smoking here, then why can’t we accomplish the same with illegal drug use?
TW3
John Whitmore Jenkins
February 5, 2026
